What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events. From elections and economic indicators to sports, entertainment, and cryptocurrency prices, the platform transforms collective intelligence into real-time probability forecasts.
Founded in 2020 by entrepreneur Shayne Coplan, Polymarket has grown from a niche crypto experiment into a mainstream forecasting powerhouse. The platform recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, pushing its valuation to approximately $9 billion.
Polymarket Referral Code: ICODA
Polymarket
World’s Largest Prediction MarketTrading Fees
- 0% Platform Fees
Platform
- Prediction Market
- Polygon
Referral Bonus
- $10
The State of Crypto Prediction Markets in 2025
The prediction market industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, transforming from a niche crypto experiment into mainstream financial infrastructure. Combined monthly volumes across major platforms exceeded $7.4 billion in October 2025, with weekly trading surpassing $2 billion for the first time.
Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the landscape. Polymarket holds a $9 billion valuation following a landmark $2 billion investment from ICE (parent company of the NYSE), while Kalshi secured $185 million at a $5 billion valuation with backing from Sequoia, a16z, and Paradigm. Kalshi currently captures approximately 60% of sector volume, leveraging its CFTC-regulated status and fiat rails, while Polymarket leads in global reach through its crypto-native infrastructure.
The competitive field is expanding rapidly. Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel, DraftKings, and Gemini are all entering the space, signaling institutional confidence. Google Finance now integrates live probability data from both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Industry projections estimate growth to $95.5 billion by 2035. The combination of regulatory clarity, institutional validation, sports betting expansion, and proven forecasting accuracy during the 2024 election cycle has positioned prediction markets as a legitimate asset class rather than speculative gambling.
Why Trade on Polymarket in 2025?
Regulatory Approval and US Access
Polymarket received CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) approval in November 2025, allowing it to operate as a regulated prediction market in the United States. This regulatory milestone means US customers can now legally access the platform through proper channels.
Proven Accuracy
Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of participants who have financial stakes in the outcomes. During the 2024 US presidential election cycle, Polymarket processed approximately $3.6 billion in wagers and consistently provided probability estimates that outperformed traditional polling.
Diverse Market Categories
Polymarket offers trading opportunities across numerous categories:
- Politics: Elections, policy decisions, government actions
- Economics: Federal Reserve decisions, recession odds, inflation data
- Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades
- Sports: Championship outcomes, player performances
- Entertainment: Award shows, streaming records, celebrity news
- Technology: AI developments, product launches, company earnings
- Global Events: Geopolitical developments, international relations
Institutional Backing
The platform has attracted significant institutional interest. Beyond the ICE investment, Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital fund invested approximately $10 million in the company. Polymarket has also formed partnerships with major organizations including X (formerly Twitter), Google, the NHL, and the UFC.
How Polymarket Works
The Basics
Users purchase shares in binary outcome markets. Each share represents either a “Yes” or “No” position on a specific question. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, reflecting the market’s assessed probability of the outcome.
Example: If shares for “Will the Fed cut rates in Q4 2025?” trade at $0.62, the market collectively estimates a 62% probability of rate cuts.
Settlement
When an event concludes, winning shares pay out $1.00 each, while losing shares become worthless. Your profit equals the difference between your purchase price and $1.00 (minus fees).
Technology
Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) for transactions. This infrastructure enables fast, low-cost trading without requiring traditional banking intermediaries for non-US users.
Getting Started: Step-by-Step Guide
Step 1: Visit Polymarket via Referral Link
Navigate to polymarket.com?via=icoda to access the platform. You’ll see the main dashboard with trending prediction markets across politics, sports, crypto, and more.

Step 2: Create Your Account
Click Sign Up in the top right corner. The registration modal offers multiple options:
- Continue with Google — fastest option for new users
- Email address — enter your email and click Continue
- Connect a wallet — MetaMask, Rainbow, Coinbase Wallet, Phantom, or WalletConnect

Step 3: Access Your Dashboard
Once registered, you’ll see your Portfolio and Cash balance in the header, along with the Deposit button. Your account is now ready to fund.

Step 4: Fund Your Account
Click Deposit to open the funding modal. Polymarket offers four deposit methods:
| Method | Limit | Processing Time | Minimum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer Crypto | No limit | Instant | $3–$20 (varies by network) |
| Deposit with Card | $50,000 | ~5 minutes | $50 |
| Connect Exchange | No limit | ~2 minutes | Varies by asset |
| Deposit with PayPal | $10,000 | ~5 minutes | $50 |
Exchange connections: Coinbase is currently available. Binance, Kraken, and Gemini integrations are coming soon.

Step 5: Complete Your Deposit
For crypto deposits, select your token (USDC recommended) and blockchain network. The example below shows USDC on Base network with a $3 minimum:
- Choose Supported token (USDC)
- Select Supported chain (Base, Polygon, Ethereum, etc.)
- Copy your unique deposit address or scan the QR code
- Send funds from your wallet or exchange

Step 6: Start Trading
Once funds arrive (instant for crypto), browse markets and place your first prediction. Select Yes or No on any outcome, set your position size, and confirm.

Polymarket Trading Tips for Beginners
Begin with modest position sizes while learning how markets behave. Prediction markets can move quickly based on news events.
Every market has specific resolution rules. Understanding exactly what determines a “Yes” or “No” outcome prevents surprises.
Spreading positions across different market types reduces concentration risk and exposure to any single unpredictable outcome.
Successful traders stay informed about developments relevant to their positions. Set up news alerts for topics you’re trading.
More active markets typically offer tighter spreads and easier entry/exit. Less liquid markets may require patience.
Polymarket vs. Traditional Betting
| Feature | Polymarket | Traditional Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Market Types | Broad (politics, economics, tech, sports) | Primarily sports |
| Pricing | Market-determined by traders | Set by bookmakers |
| Trading | Buy and sell positions anytime | Fixed bets until settlement |
| Transparency | On-chain, verifiable | Opaque house odds |
| Information Value | Reflects collective intelligence | Reflects bookmaker assessment |
Polymarket vs. Competitors: Platform Comparison
How does Polymarket compare to other leading prediction markets? Here’s a breakdown:
| Feature | 🔵 Polymarket | 🟢 Kalshi | 🅿️ PredictIt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | $9 billion | $5 billion | N/A |
| Trading Fees | None | Variable (up to $1.74/100 contracts) | 5% on profits |
| Currency | USDC (crypto) | USD (fiat) | USD (fiat) |
| Blockchain | Polygon | No | No |
| Market Categories | Politics, crypto, sports, entertainment, economics, tech | Politics, economics, sports, entertainment | Politics only |
| Active Markets | 38,000+ | 1,000+ | 132 |
| Global Access | Yes | Limited (43 US states + international) | US citizens only |
| US Availability | Yes (via brokerages, Nov 2025) | Yes | Yes |
Why Polymarket stands out: Zero trading fees, the broadest market selection, on-chain transparency, and global accessibility give Polymarket distinct advantages for active traders. While Kalshi leads in US market share through traditional finance integrations, Polymarket’s crypto-native infrastructure appeals to users seeking lower costs and decentralized settlement.
Polymarket Airdrop: $POLY Token Distribution
Is the Airdrop Confirmed?
Yes. On October 24, 2025, Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber officially confirmed the airdrop during the Degenz Live podcast: “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop.” This ended months of speculation following CEO Shayne Coplan’s earlier hints about a $POLY token.
Timeline and Conditions
The $POLY token launch is projected for 2026, following Polymarket’s complete US relaunch. The team prioritized regulatory compliance over rushing a token release, emphasizing they want “true utility, longevity, and permanence.”
While official eligibility criteria haven’t been announced, community analysis suggests allocations will likely weight:
- Trading volume — total USD value of positions traded
- Profitability — successful prediction track record
- Liquidity provision — placing competitive limit orders
- Market diversity — number of different markets traded
- Account longevity — early and consistent platform usage
Data shows only 1.7% of Polymarket’s 1.35 million wallets have traded over $50,000, suggesting a broad distribution could reach hundreds of thousands of users.
Farming Strategy
To position for the airdrop while minimizing risk:
- Trade high-probability outcomes — bet on near-certain events for volume with limited downside
- Provide two-sided liquidity — earns up to 3x platform rewards and signals genuine engagement
- Diversify across markets — participate in politics, sports, crypto, and entertainment categories
- Use one wallet consistently — avoid splitting activity across addresses
- Hedge across platforms — place offsetting positions on Polymarket and Kalshi to generate volume while staying market-neutral
Avoid wash trading or Sybil attacks (multiple small wallets). Polymarket has indicated they’re implementing anti-gaming measures to reward genuine users over manipulators.
Official Polymarket Links:
- Website: polymarket.com
- X (Twitter): @Polymarket
- Referral Program: partners.dub.co/polymarket
Conclusion
Polymarket represents a significant evolution in how collective intelligence can forecast future events. With regulatory approval, institutional backing, and a proven track record, the platform has emerged as a legitimate tool for both information-seekers and traders.
Ready to start? Use the referral code ICODA or visit polymarket.com to create your account today.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Polymarket received CFTC approval in November 2025 to operate as a regulated prediction market in the United States. International availability varies by jurisdiction.
Use promo code ICODA or sign up through polymarket.com?via=icoda when creating your account.
Withdrawals are processed in USDC. Connect your wallet and initiate withdrawals through the platform’s interface. Processing times vary based on network conditions.
As a regulated platform with CFTC oversight and backing from major financial institutions including the NYSE’s parent company, Polymarket operates under established compliance frameworks. However, all trading involves risk.
Polymarket offers markets on politics, economics, cryptocurrency, sports, entertainment, technology, and current events. New markets are added regularly based on user interest.
Disclaimer: Trading on prediction markets involves financial risk. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose. This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Please review Polymarket’s terms of service and applicable regulations in your jurisdiction before participating.
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